An analytical-tabular calculation method of reliability for bus-structured information control systems is considered, for illustration, in the process of estimation of failure-free operation measures of safety systems for the St.-Petersburg Metro train traffic. This method can be used in the process of predicting and creating reliability models of complex diagnostic and information systems for medicine and safety systems for thermal and nuclear power engineering.

The present phase of developing science and engineering is characterized, on the one hand, by growth of complexityof manufactured products, and on the other hand, by rigid requirements imposed for their reliability. Despite sufficiently vast experience stored in our country and abroad and significant results achieved in the field of theories of design and tests of complex information control systems, a number of unsettled problems remain in the sphere of estimation methodology of reliability measures at early stages of product life cycle.

These problems arise especially urgent in the process of developing control systems of objects considered the most dangerous. Such systems are dangerous not only for dependent objects and service personnel but also for population and environment. Therefore reliability occupies one of the central places among the properties constituting a notion of quality of such control systems. Modern electronic components used in promising control systems have a mean operating time to failure of several hundred thousand hours up to several million hours.

The complex systems comprising these components, in their turn, have a really achievable operating time to failure of 50-100 thousand hours, which does not meet the present-day requirements for duration of their operation.

Moreover, the systems in which the failure of a separate element can prove “dangerous” have particular significance. Under certain conditions such a failure, which is a source of safety threat, can cause either human victims and traumata or grave economic, ecological and other undesirable consequences, for example, loss of enterprise-developer authority or decrease in consumer demand for output production...

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